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Off The Rail - Nov 12, 2006 - Printable Version
- Hindsight Hell, Truthiness, and the 80 Percent Solution
by Mike Bohling
“If I only knew then what I know now”. Just reading the words probably has you recalling one of those moments. We all have our own version of hindsight hell. I know what mine is, just as you know yours. It doesn’t come easily. First, you have to realize that you fucked up. Then, as you look back over and over again at your mistake you think about all of the things you should have done differently. After you've contemplated all of "shoulda done’s", you search a little deeper and learn the cruelest lesson of all about hindsight; it doesn't change a damn thing. The only thing to gain, if you're lucky, is that you learn from your mistakes. It's really not much of a consolation, but it’s all you get.
The fact that it haunts you for the rest of your life constitutes the “hell” part.
I’ve been trying to write about my own hindsight hell for quite a while. I’ve started to a half dozen times. I guess the reason I've never completed the task is because I don’t think it’s anyone’s business but my own. The only reason I keep trying is because I find it strangely therapeutic. I can’t share with you what I’ve managed to write on the topic, but I will share the lesson I learned. "Never start anything that you know you can’t finish". Trust me, it was an excruciating discovery.
It wasn’t until last week’s Administration leak about the "80 percent solution" and Merriam-Webster’s declaration of “Truthiness” as the 2006 word of the year, that I was able to pull all of the pieces together, write about someone else’s hindsight hell and turn it into something worth reading.
The word “Truthiness” is credited to Stephen Colbert, who defined it as “truth that comes from the gut, not books.” According to John Morse, President of Merriam-Webster, “We’re at a point where what constitutes truth is a question on a lot of people’s minds, and truth has become up for grabs, “Truthiness” is a playful way for us to think about a very important issue.”
So what, you ask, does truthiness have to do with hindsight? Well, everything if you happen to be the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
If you’ll take a leap of faith with me and assume that President Bush has at least some sense of hindsight, the past six years of his presidency surely must have created some pretty good fodder for it. I don’t know why, but whenever I think about George contemplating all of the opportunities he’s had to zag and instead chose to zig, a mental image of Wyle E. Coyote pops into my head. What kind of hindsight does a man gain after he’s put on roller skates and strapped an “Acme” rocket onto his back for the thousandth time?
Truthiness has been working its magic on the Bush Administration for the past six years. G-Dubya has pretty much ignored all of the facts, the advice, and the evidence. He has instead has relied on truthiness, the truth from his gut, to guide him through the decision making process. As we are all painfully aware, this has led to a daisy chain of disastrous decisions and policies.
The biggest case of hindsight hell that George W. Bush faces - the one he gambled his presidency on - is the war in Iraq. There’s no denying by anyone living in the reality-based community that the U.S. is failing there. Bush’s war policy was repudiated by the U.N and the rest of the world before we invaded, was rebuked by American people in the last election, and is now being labeled a catastrophe by the Iraq Study Group.
The ISG, composed mostly of former Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton advisors, have had they’re conclusions and recommendations dismissed by the Bush 43 gang. The fear, according to one of the elder Bush’s advisors, is that “If President Bush changes his policy in Iraq in a fundamental way, it undermines the whole premise of his presidency. I just don’t believe he will ever do that.”
The problem in Bush’s eyes is not so much that the he invaded a country under false pretenses, had no plan for the future, and zigged every time he should have zagged; the problem is that if he were to face reality and take the ISG recommendations seriously, it would make him look foolish. He’s been so adamant about staying the course for so long that to change tactics now would jeopardize his legacy. It would be an admission of what a miserable failure his presidency has been.
This is where the 80 percent solution comes into play, where the ramifications of Bush’s craven and egotistical avoidance of reality and his embrace of truthiness become too agonizing to contemplate. Basically, the 80 percent solution is a plan to take sides in the Iraqi civil war and back the Shiites over the Sunni.
The thinking behind this plan is that if the U.S. backs the Shiites and Kurds in defeating the Sunni, then we will have strong allies within the Shiite government after the civil war is over. They call the proposal the "80 percent solution” because Sunni Arabs make up only about 20 percent of Iraq's 26 million people.
Until now, U.S. policy has been to build a unified government from Iraq's communities of Shiite, Sunni, and Kurds. The 80 percent solution would effectively abandon the unification plan, and place the Shiites in control of Iraq.
In essence, the U.S. would willfully fail its stated mission of unification, take sides in Iraq’s civil war, crush the minority of Sunni Arabs and deny them a rightful voice in the new government. The belief is that Bush can then claim victory in Iraq and his presidency won’t go down in history as the irrefutable failure that we all know it is. It’s a perfect solution for everybody, unless you happen to be one of the 5.2 million Sunni Arabs living in Iraq.
Does any one else think this is an incredibly bad idea?
When I hear reports that the White House is seriously contemplating the 80 percent solution, I can’t help but wonder why Wyle E. Coyote keeps putting on the roller skates and lighting the fuse. All they have to do is apply a little hindsight. If the did, they would understand that ignoring reality, the advice of veteran statesmen, and embracing truthiness is what got them into this mess in the first place.
Instead, they plan to grab for the brass ring. The illusion of achieving victory, salvaging the image of a failed President, a failed Administration, and a failed policy in the Middle East will overcome any lessons that hindsight has to offer. If there is a ninth circle of hindsight hell, the 80 percent solution is the most certain path to take us there. It will be an excruciating discovery.
Beep Beep!
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